Currencies Global July 2019 By: HSBC FX Strategy www.research.hsbc.com Currency Outlook FX and trade wars: The new world order The US wants to prevent FX movements from undermining protectionist measures aimed at reining in the US trade deficit. In the Plaza accord of 1985, FX movements were used to foster trade rebalancing and prevent protectionism. The proposed new world order is that FX is anchored and trade deals or tariffs rectify the US trade imbalance. If currency clauses become a common element within future trade deals, it would change the dynamics of the FX market. GBP and Brexit No deal for real? AUD & fiscal policy Bear market losing its bite Play video with David Bloom Disclosures & Disclaimer: This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. Currencies ● Global July 2019 Summary FX and trade wars: The new world order (pg 3) The US wants to prevent FX movements from undermining protectionist measures aimed at reining in the US trade deficit. In the Plaza accord of 1985, FX movements were used to foster trade rebalancing and prevent protectionism. The proposed new world order is that FX is anchored and trade deals or tariffs rectify the US trade imbalance. If currency clauses become a common element within future trade deals, it would change the dynamics of the FX market. GBP and Brexit: No deal for real? (pg 13) Our central case is that the UK avoids 'no deal' Brexit on 31 October, whether by leaving with a deal or by extending Article 50 again. However, this event is obviously possible and has probably risen in likelihood. We forecast GBP-USD moving to 1.10 in a ‘no deal’ scenario, with EUR-GBP likely moving towards parity. All in all, we think GDP could fall by around 1.5% peak-to-trough. We would expect further rate cuts of 25bps to 0.25% in December and 15bps to 0.1% in January, and an increase in QE through various forms. AUD & Fiscal policy: Bear market losing its bite (pg 17) A renewed focus on fiscal policy reveals the limits of monetary policy. This is different from the FX positive experience of the US in 2018 or Australia in 2009. The policy mix means the bulk of the AUD sell-off is over, we tweaked our year-end AUD-USD forecast to 0.68 from 0.66. We do not view fiscal policy as AUD-positive at this stage. Any shift towards providing more budgetary stimulus is likely to reflect the limits of monetary policy in stimulating growth, which is different from previous episodes, when fiscal loosening drove central banks to tighten and has been FX-positive. 1 Currencies ● Global July 2019 Key events Date Event 25 July ECB rate announcement 30 July BoJ rate announcement 31 July FOMC rate announcement 1 August BoE rate announcement 6 August RBA rate announcement 7 August RBNZ rate announcement Source: HSBC Central Bank policy rate forecasts (%) Last Q4 2019(f) Q4 2020(f) USD 2.25-2.50 1.75-2.00 1.75-2.00 EUR 0.00/-0.40 0.00/-0.60 0.00/-0.60 JPY -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 GBP 0.75 0.75 0.75 Source: HSBC forecasts for Fed funds, Refi rate/Deposit rate, Overnight Call rate and Base rate Consensus forecasts for key currencies vs USD 3 months 12 months EUR 1.127 1.162 JPY 108.8 107.4 GBP 1.279 1.328 CAD 1.335 1.319 AUD 0.693 0.704 NZD 0.655 0.661 Source: Consensus Economics Foreign Exchange Forecasts June 2019 2 Currencies ● Global July 2019 FX and trade wars The new world order  The US wants to prevent FX movements from undermining protectionist measures aimed at reining in the US trade deficit  In the Plaza accord of 1985 FX movements were used to foster trade rebalancing and prevent protectionism. The proposed new world order is that FX is anchored and trade deals or tariffs rectify the US trade imbalance  If currency clauses were to become a common element within future trade deals, it would change the dynamics of the FX market President Trump wants to reduce the US trade deficit. The chosen treatment is a combination of re-worked trade agreements and a ratcheting up of tariffs. But the effectivenes

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