 Global Research 17 July 2019 China Industrials Equities China infrastructure back in focus: deciphering FAI China growth by sector Industrial Robin Xu Analyst Infrastructure FAI remains important; we favour construction & environmental S1460511010012 bin.xu@ubssecurities.com Infrastructure FAI has been an important factor in boosting and stabilising China's GDP. +86-213-866 8872 Infrastructure FAI growth slowed sharply to 2% in 2018 due to the deleveraging push, Ning Zhang but has rebounded modestly since Q418 due to policy support and marginal easing of Economist implicit local debt control. UBS China economics team expects infrastructure FAI to ning.zhang@ubs.com grow 5-7% in 2019E, 7-9% in 2020E and 4-5% in the 14th Five-Year Plan (FYP) +852-2971 8135 period, accelerating from 3% YoY in H119. In this report, for the first time, we provide Tao Wang a bottom-up infrastructure FAI analysis by sub-industry. We expect construction, Economist renewable and environmental companies to be the biggest beneficiaries of policy wang.tao@ubs.com support for infrastructure FAI. +852-2971 7525 Alex Liu Which sub-industries will contribute most to Rmb2.7trn incremental FAI? Analyst Breaking down incremental infrastructure FAI in 2019/20E, transportation and public S1460515080001 facilities remain significant contributors, together representing over 60% of total. alex-c.liu@ubssecurities.com Among which, key incremental contributors are urban rail transit (URT) and municipal +86-213-866 8857 facilities. It is worth highlighting that we expect environmental to contribute around Abigail Sun 20% of incremental infrastructure FAI in 2019/20E. We think urbanisation wil remain a Analyst major driver for infrastructure spending, although the impact wil be smaller after 2020. S1460518040002 abigail.sun@ubssecurities.com Which sub-industries will deliver the highest FAI growth in 2019/20E? +86-213-866 8637 We forecast environmental to deliver the highest infrastructure FAI growth in Ken Liu 2019/20E and in the 14th FYP period, due to stricter requirements for environment Analyst protection and increasing penetration into lower tier cities and rural areas. We expect ken.liu@ubs.com telecom spending to achieve Rmb700bn in 2020E as a result of 5G adoption. We think +852-2971 7516 URT FAI wil grow fastest among transportation sub-industries as URT alleviates traffic James Wang congestion and protects the environment. Interestingly, some neo infrastructure Analyst industries (eg, AI and industrial Internet) will also deliver strong growth; although direct james-zb.wang@ubs.com contribution to overall infrastructure FAI is small, they provide meaningful spil -over +852-3712 2557 effect for infrastructure FAI for other industries. Jimmy Yu Analyst Stock implications of our in-depth bottom-up analysis of infrastructure FAI S1460517080002 Following our in-depth infrastructure FAI analysis, our preferred stocks are CRCC, CCCC jimmy.yu@ubssecurities.com and CRG among infrastructure construction companies; Longi, GCL-Poly and Xinyi +86-213-866 8880 Solar for renewable; and Focused Photonics and Tus-Sound for environmental. Fan Ping Associate fan.ping@ubssecurities.com +86-213-866 8830 Infrastructure FAI CAGR in 2019-20E Incremental infra FAI in 2019-20E Infra overal 7% Environment 40% Transport 28% Telecom 23% Public Public facilities 6% facilities Telecom 34% 9% Hydraulic 6% Environm Hydraulic Transport 6% ent 5% 19% Utilities Utilities 2% 5% Source: UBS estimates www.ubs.com/investmentresearch This report has been prepared by UBS Securities Asia Limited. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE 41. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Contents Robin Xu Analyst S1460511010012 One-page teaser ............................................................................... 3 bin.xu@ubssecurities.com What drove China's infr

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