证券研究报告 | July 18, 2019 | 3:58AM HKT 中国 农业 从长计议国人 饮食之变(摘要) 本报告仅供 kol.yu@ghsl.cn 使用 在自然资源已被过渡挖掘,以及中国的农业生产成本上升到其他主要农业国家的两倍的情况下,中国需要通过更 本报告仅供 kol_yu_ghsl_cn 使用 多技术创新带来的产量增长,和加大进口来平衡未来的食品供需。我们认为中国农业领域投资前景颇具吸引力: 近期非洲猪瘟、气候因素以及去库存结束有望带动价格周期上行,从长期来看价格呈现结构性上升趋势。更值得 着重关注的是,在中国农业转型之际,供应整合、饮食结构升级、高效新技术/新产品加大渗透等因素将在行业内 创造相对更为强劲的增长机会。 *全文翻译随后提供 戴晔, CFA (分析师) 执业证书编号:S1420517070001 +86(21)2401-8944 brian.dai@ghsl.cn 北京高华证券有限责任公司 北京高华证券有限责任公司及其关联机构与其研究报告所分析的企业存在业务关系,并且继续寻求发展 这些关系。因此,投资者应当考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突,不应视本报告 为作出投资决策的唯一因素。 有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息,见信息披露附录,或请与您的投资 代表联系。 Goldman Sachs China Agriculture Table of Contents Story in charts 5 Investment summary 6 Pricing forecasts and key supply/demand balance 11 Summary of key stocks 12 China’s agriculture sector: A macro view, sustained growth ahead 13 ASF and global protein: tighter for longer 24 LT dietary pattern in transition: Not more, but better 34 Chinese supply: Transformation needed 43 Global supply responses: Feeding China’s rising imports 57 Pricing and margin outlook: Strong margin outlook for animal protein, best risk reward in corn 76 China sub-sector 1: Live hog breeding and cultivation 88 China sub-sector 2: Feed 103 China sub-sector 3: Animal health 108 China sub-sector 4: Seeds 114 Stock picks: China and global 119 Disclosure Appendix 140 本报告仅供 kol.yu@ghsl.cn 使用 本报告仅供 kol_yu_ghsl_cn 使用 List of contributing authors Trina Chen | +852 2978-2678 | trina.chen@gs.com | Goldman Sachs Asia LLC Brian Dai, CFA | +86 21 2401-8944 | brian.dai@ghsl.cn | Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited Adam Samuelson | +1 212 902-6764 | adam.samuelson@gs.com | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Michael Peet | +61 2 9321-8528 | michael.peet@gs.com | Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd Luca Cipiccia | +1 212 357-4335 | luca.cipiccia@gs.com | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Lincoln Kong, CFA | +852 2978-6603 | lincoln.kong@gs.com | Goldman Sachs Asia LLC Theodora Lee Joseph, CFA | +44 20 7051-8362 | theodoralee.joseph@gs.com | Goldman Sachs International Sophie Carran | +61 2 9321-8582 | sophie.carran@gs.com | Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd Jordan Shimabuku | +1 801 741-5447 | jordan.shimabuku@gs.com | Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Yuqing Li | +852 2978-7347 | yuqing.li@gs.com | Goldman Sachs Asia LLC Annabel Hazlitt | +44 20 7051-7375 | annabel.hazlitt@gs.com | Goldman Sachs International 18 July 2019 2 Goldman Sachs China Agriculture DEMAND GROWTH IN CHINA 11% 85% CAGR for milk & milk product imports in the last few of China beef consumption growth from 2018 to long years term, 40% of which would need to come from imports 24% +4% higher daily consumption in grain equivalent terms, growth in non-pork meat Chinese demand from China in when China upgrades its animal protein consumption to 1Q19, while pork apparent demand declined by 5%, on the same level as Japan and Korea the back of African Swine Fever (ASF) SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS AND OPPORTUNITIES 45% 3.5x percentage of China pork output could decline from China’s use of nitrogen-based fertilizer per hectare of normal level, by end of 2020, assuming ASF comes land vs. global average under control in 2H19 1.8x 0-2.5% higher yield in soybean in China vs. US negative climate impact on crop yield over a decade, reported by IPCC 30% 150x 本报告仅供 kol.yu@ghsl.cn 使用 more potential yield gain can be achieved in theory for faster seeding operations using drone-based seeding 本报告仅供 kol_yu_ghsl_cn 使用 Longping’s hybrid rice versus traditional manual seeding in China GLOBAL SUPPLY, TRADE, AND PRICES 7-42% 34-60% of the agriculture supply are traded globally today, and gaps between global supply and China demand may could grow by 12-51% due to increasing imports from emerge, without a yield revolution, if Chinese China in the coming years consumption upgrades are reached by 2030, while global land expansion is likely to remain disciplined 31% 100% of the Amazon maybe converted to agriculture use by higher production costs for Chinese corn and soybean 2050, from current 17%, if land expansion in Brazil vs. US and Brazil grows at over 1% a year 40% 60-100% of production in China is labour, which grew 4x in the price h

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