Equities Autos July 2019 By: Wei Sim and Tracy Li www.research.hsbc.com China Autos Not so fast After a tough 12 months for China’s auto industry, the market is looking for a bottom but we do not think we are there yet Our proprietary survey and electrification analysis lead us to lower our earnings for manufacturers (OEMs) by 36-40% We downgrade BAIC, Great Wall-H and GAC-H to Reduce, Zhengtong and Dongfeng to Hold, leaving us with no Buys Play interview with Wei Sim and Tracy Li Disclosures & Disclaimer: This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. Equities ● Automobiles July 2019 THIS CONTENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED TO THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA (THE "PRC") (EXCLUDING SPECIAL ADMINISTRATIVE REGIONS OF HONG KONG AND MACAO) Why read this report?  We have a non-consensus view that China’s auto sales will not recover in 2H 2019  Our proprietary survey and electrification analysis lead us to believe that margins on Chinese OEMs will be pressured further  Dealers stand out as they are the beneficiaries of strong sales in the luxury segment and the relaxation of car plate restrictions 1 Equities ● Automobiles July 2019 China autos running on empty Source: IHS, Toluna, HSBC estimates 2 Equities ● Automobiles July 2019 Ratings, valuations and target price changes Fig 1: Key changes to ratings and estimates Current Target Price _ ______ Rating _______ Upside/ Market 3m Target price implied PER FY18-20e Company Ticker Currency price Old New Old New downside cap ADTV FY19e FY20e earnings (%) (USDm) (USDm) CAGR BAIC 1958 HK HKD 5.29 6.10 ↓ 3.60 Hold ↓ Reduce -31.9 5,424 5.4 5.6 6.5 -2% Brilliance 1114 HK HKD 9.08 8.60 ↓ 8.40 Hold Hold -7.5 5,861 15.5 5.6 5.6 5% Changan-A 000625 CH CNY 7.71 2.80 ↓ 2.30 Reduce Reduce -70.2 1,997 25.5 -3.4 -3.3 n/a Changan-B 200625 CH HKD 3.25 3.10 ↓ 2.70 Reduce Reduce -16.9 1,997 0.7 -4.0 -3.9 n/a Dongfeng 489 HK HKD 7.19 8.90 ↓ 7.00 Buy ↓ Hold -2.6 7,925 12.8 4.4 4.3 -5% GAC-A 601238 CH CNY 11.22 7.90 ↓ 4.70 Reduce Reduce -58.1 16,692 18.0 6.1 6.4 -17% GAC-H 2238 HK HKD 8.23 9.10 ↓ 5.40 Hold ↓ Reduce -34.4 16,692 29.0 6.1 6.5 -17% Geely 175 HK HKD 12.46 11.30 ↓10.00 Reduce Reduce -19.7 14,321 99.2 9.0 7.1 -7% Great Wall-A 601633 CH CNY 8.45 5.50 ↓ 3.40 Reduce Reduce -59.8 11,213 23.6 9.4 10.1 -1% Great Wall-H 2333 HK HKD 5.50 6.20 ↓ 4.00 Hold ↓ Reduce -27.3 11,213 24.2 9.7 10.4 -1% Yongda 3669 HK HKD 7.29 6.80 ↑ 7.10 Hold Hold -2.6 1,714 3.0 6.6 5.4 31% Zhengtong 1728 HK HKD 3.04 5.50 ↓ 3.20 Buy ↓ Hold 5.3 954 3.1 4.8 3.9 19% Zhongsheng 881 HK HKD 21.85 21.00 ↓20.00 Hold Hold -8.5 6,350 12.2 9.4 8.0 18% "Priced as of close at 26 July 2019 Source: Refinitiv Datastream, HSBC estimates. 3 Equities ● Automobiles July 2019 Contents Why read this report? 1 China autos running on empty 2 Ratings, valuations and target price changes 3 Road ahead remains bumpy 6 The journey so far in 2019 11 Still stuck in reverse 13 Short term pain, then gains 20 Stimulus not the solution 24 Valuations and risks 28 Related research 41 Financials & Valuations 43 Disclosure appendix 57 Disclaimer 60 4 Earnings revisions / vs. consensus We have adjusted our 2019-2021 estimates to factor in our new y-t-d 2019 sales volumes for each of the companies, as well as revising our estimates to reflect greater margin pressure for the industry from both weaker-than-consensus forecasted sales volumes in 2H 2019e and the negative impact on margins from a higher NEV mix. Overall, we have revised down our sector reported profit for OEM estimates by between 36-40%; our new l

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