Economics Global Q4 2019 By: Janet Henry and James Pomeroy Glob al Global Economics Econom ics Putting the air back in Central banks are trying to pump the air back into a slowing global economy… …but using monetary policy to offset damage from US-China trade tensions has its limits and poses risks… …so fiscal stimulus and new regional trade initiatives wil need to lend a hand Econom ics | G lobal Play video with Janet Henry Q4 2019 Disclosures & Disclaimer: This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. Economics ● Global Q4 2019 Executive Summary Putting the air back in Global growth has now slowed to the slowest pace since the eurozone crisis and ongoing trade tensions and other geopolitical uncertainties leave it poised to slow further. With inflation also still too low, policymakers are trying to put the air back into the global economy. More central banks around the world, led by the Fed and the ECB, are cutting rates. Fiscal stimulus is imminent too but yield curves still seem to be signalling recession. Even if policy succeeds in preventing one, will this stimulus raise productivity growth, wages and the neutral interest rate? Or will it instead pump up new asset bubbles and have distributional consequences that pave the way to more populism and an ongoing reversal of globalisation? How much of a counterweight can be provided by new trade deals being struck by economies in Asia-Pacific and Europe? Gauging vulnerabilities The long-awaited turnaround in the global manufacturing sector has not yet materialised. Markets have revived a little on news that talks between the US and China will resume in October but we still expect trade frictions to continue to weigh on growth. Capital spending plans cannot be put into action and cancelled as quickly as financial markets respond to the latest encouraging news of a trade truce or sign of further tension. So although there have been a few glimmers of hope that the worst of the industrial recession may be behind us, the most recent European flash PMIs were very weak and the outlook for investment spending is soggy. Evidence of the industrial recession feeding through to the more resilient services sector and labour markets has so far been scant but there have been some potential warning signs, most notably in the expectations component of the eurozone service sector PMIs and a gradual rise in the number of unemployed in Germany in the four months to August. The rise in household saving rates in many advanced economies may be a red flag too and in some industrially exposed Asian economies consumer confidence has been sliding. To gauge the relative sensitivities of the advanced and emerging economies we cover we have scanned them for the scale and duration of the industrial downturn as well as their exposure to manufacturing and exports. We have also assessed their ability to deliver further monetary and fiscal stimulus if their economies continue to weaken. The monetary gas is back… Acutely aware that their ability to respond to the slowdown in global growth and lower-than-desired inflation is more constrained in the face of this downswing than the last, central banks around the world continue to respond by easing monetary policy. The prescription has not been uniform though. In the advanced world, the Fed clearly has more scope to ease than most. Having already cut by 50bps in Q3, we expect one more 25 bps reduction by end-year. The ECB’s well-flagged package of a lower deposit rate, open-ended QE and more forward guidance was duly delivered in September while China also stepped up its monetary easing as the economy slowed further over the summer but in a more selective way than in the past. Reserve requirements and some lending rates have been lowered but there is caution about further inflating the housing market and perhaps a desire to keep some policy powder dry should this prove to be a more prolonged trade dispute. Other emerging economies have followed suit or even led, including some that are still paying lip service to financial stability risks: growth risks are now tipping the balance. 1 Economics ● Global Q4 2019 The key question now is the extent to which monetary easing can prevent a fu

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