 Global Research 14 October 2019 Global Auto Sector Equities China electric cars: braking suddenly? China Automobiles Near-term growth bottleneck Paul Gong Analyst After over 80% sales volume growth in 2018 and 60% in H119, we expect H219 paul.gong@ubs.com China electric car growth to slow to around zero. A subsidy cut of over 60% since late +852-2971 7868 June is a key reason, but over-reliance on licence plate restrictions and fleet purchases Yizhe Wang are also drags on near-term growth. After tracing several mil ion compulsory insurance Analyst registration entry data, we estimate over 40% of electric cars are sold in cities with yz.wang@ubs.com licence plate restrictions and where restrictions are being relaxed amid weak +852-2971 8007 combustion engine car sales. Ride-on-demand procurement accounts for about 40% of Wei Shen electric car sales and a growth bottleneck is emerging. Car makers urgently need to Analyst penetrate individual procurement in non-restrictive cities for further growth, in our S1460518060001 view. We prefer leading incumbents (GAC and Geely) over EV-focused plays (NIO and wei.shen@ubssecurities.com BYD) in this environment. +86-213-866 8897 Aria Ma The race for innovation Analyst The tougher environment aside, the industry is making fast technological progress. We S1460518070001 analysed hundreds of model variants approved by the government, and found that aria.ma@ubssecurities.com during the past 18 months energy density has improved by 13%, power efficiency by +86-105-832 8664 26%, and average driving range is up by 50%. The competitive landscape is also Nora Min changing fast with GAC and Geely emerging as new tech leaders. Tesla stil leads on Analyst S1460518050001 brand recognition and used car residual value, and we expect localisation to bring nora.min@ubssecurities.com down prices by over 20% and disrupt the market, especially at the high end. +86-213-866 8905 Long-term cost parity unchanged Patrick Hummel, CFA Based on innovation and progress on the supply side, we think total cost parity with Analyst patrick.hummel@ubs.com combustion cars is achievable in the next three to five years, and the electric car market +41-44-239 79 23 wil resume a 30-40% volume CAGR to 2025E, accounting for a quarter of the new car market by then. However, we expect tough competition in the lead-up. Colin Langan, CFA Analyst Challenging times for EV companies colin.langan@ubs.com +1-212-713 9949 We think investors underestimate the challenges for EV makers and the supply chain. We resume coverage of BYD with a Sell rating on rising competition and a rich Kohei Takahashi valuation. We think leading incumbent carmakers like GAC and Geely have more than Analyst kohei.takahashi@ubs.com adequate resources for electric car R&D, and we have Buy ratings on both. +81-3-5208 6172 Tim Bush Analyst tim-d.bush@ubs.com +852-2971 6113 Geoff Haire Figure 1: Key company watch list Analyst geoff.haire@ubs.com Share +44-20-7568 8327 price 2019E 2020E EV rev Company Code Rating PT (LC) (LC) PE (x) PE (x) exposure Key EV initiatives to watch GAC-H 2238.HK Buy 9.30 8.00 7.4 6.7 30%* Aion series new launches SAIC 600104.SS Buy 28.00 23.91 8.6 7.9 5% Next generation EV product based on Marvel technologies Geely 0175.HK Buy 13.60 13.86 12.1 10.7 15% Fleet powertrain electrification, dedicated PMA platform VW VOWG_p.DE Buy 200.00 153.94 5.5 5.2 < 5% MEB platform global ramp-up CATL 300750.SZ Sel 60.00 70.90 34.8 29.6 100% Next generation cel /pack, overseas expansion BYD-H 1211.HK Sel 32.00 38.10 35.8 30.7 45% External sales of batteries, e-series new launches Tesla TSLA.O Sel 160.00 244.53 n.a. 60.8 100% China plant ramp-up and model Y launch * Refers to GAC’s Trumpchi unit. Above data of 10 October 2019. Source: Thomson Reuters, UBS estimates www.ubs.com/investmentresearch This report has been prepared by UBS Securities Asia Limited. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE 40. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies

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